SHFE tin prices fluctuate at highs, awaiting changes in macro sentiment and guidance from LME trends. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on October 16, 2025, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. Although the SHFE tin 2511 contract closed the previous night session at 280,070 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.12%, the intraday price demonstrated resilience, supported by a tight supply-demand balance in the fundamentals. The contract temporarily settled at 281,350 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.34%. LME tin prices showed signs of stabilization; overnight, LME tin futures closed up $204 at $35,393/mt, a gain of 0.54%, indicating that the LME market was gradually finding support after consecutive adjustments.

Demand side, the situation was one of stark contrast. Orders decreased in the traditional solder sector due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, but the semiconductor industry remained robust as the global cycle stabilized. Long-term demand expectations driven by emerging areas such as AI computing power increases and PV installation growth provided support for tin prices, but their current scale was not enough to fully offset the weakness in traditional sector consumption. Trading in the spot market was sluggish; downstream enterprises had limited acceptance for prices above 280,000 yuan/mt, mostly opting for small-volume, just-in-time procurement, resulting in an overall lackluster trading atmosphere.

In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue moving sideways within the range of 272,000-286,000 yuan/mt. For the afternoon session, focus will be on whether spot market transactions can improve, changes in macro sentiment, and guidance from LME price movements.